Saudi Arabia Bans Protests

Joy.  The royal family is busy buying people off:

Last month, [King] Abdullah returned to Riyadh after a three-month medical absence and announced $37bn in benefits for citizens in a bid to curb dissent.

But that is not terrifically sustainable--particularly as the royal family continues to expand.  I am certainly not saying it will happen soon, but if unrest in Saudi Arabia goes hot, the level of economic impact on *everyone* is going to be on a level most of us have never seen--perhaps none of us have ever seen.

US Dollar's Reign

Barry Eichengreen at the WSJ joins those saying that the days of the US Dollar being the lingua franca of currency between countries are numbered. I've heard this argument for a while now, but it still hasn't happened and I suspect that it will still take a while before it does.

The Euro still isn't quite trusted because of many reasons probably, but chief amongst them has to be the situations in Ireland and Greece demonstrating that there are still major issues to contend with regarding stability and, frankly, just who is in charge. Unintentionally (and rather ironically), the Euro is somewhat imposing the gold standard on many of these European countries that are having financial difficulties (see Spain). They don't have the flexibility of inflating or deflating their economy because the Euro won't let them, effectively.

And the Chinese Yuan...? I would suspect it has a fairly long way to go. It may become the de facto currency for Asia--particularly SE Asia, but they aren't near as transparent as they need to be for other international businesses to trust having vast reserves of their currency--or at least I would strongly suspect that.

But we shall see. If the US debt keeps piling up as it is, the US Dollar could possibly force other countries to think differently about their reserve currency, I suppose.

Ellington and Coltrane

Back when saxophone players didn't sound so God-awful cheesy. Coltrane coming back in at about the 3:30 mark and Ellington's finish on this version is gorgeous.

Duped by Obama?

Quite possibly. Andrew Sullivan makes the case.

The [fiscal] crisis is the cost of future entitlements and defense, about which Obama proposes nothing. Yes, there's some blather. But Obama will not risk in any way any vulnerability on taxes to his right or entitlement spending to his left. He convened a deficit commission in order to throw it in the trash. If I were Alan Simpson or Erskine Bowles, I'd feel duped. And they were duped. All of us who took Obama's pitch as fiscally responsible were duped.

We can hope for something substantial to happen after the 2012 elections, perhaps, but I am more and more resigned to the likelihood that nothing substantial will change in our fiscal policy unless and until it becomes completely unavoidable. ('Unavoidable' as in when the US just can't borrow money because no one will lend it to us at a reasonable rate and almost all tax dollars go to interest and entitlements). I sincerely hope that both Sullivan and I are wrong.

Kucinich

The American Left arguing with itself over a Progressive 'hero' here.  

I always though Kucinich was largely a self-absorbed bag o'douche, but I can see how many on the Left would like him if only because he speaks loud and proud for issues from the Left.  Still, the accusation stands: Ineffective.

What has he accomplished?  What has he done?  What can he point to and say 'I did that for America' (or even his constituents)?  Turns out, not much of anything.  

Pat Moynihan was a progressive that got things done.  Ted Kennedy was a progressive that got things done.  Anthony Weiner is the most promising progressive legislator I've seen since Obama and he wants to get things done (including this current Health Care proposal).  Dennis Kucinich is a gimmic.  And, quite frankly, his threat to vote against the current bill because it isn't to his liking is repulsive.  

Of course, it's far from ideal.  Of course, it is flawed.  But to vote against the first real chance at universal health care for Americans after almost 100 years of effort, a bill that covers 10s of millions of America's most vulnerable, a bill that will save the lives of 40,000 Americans every year, a bill that most experts believe to actually be pretty good...positively unforgivable for any self-styled progressive to vote against it.  The aggressive stupidity and arrogance that would take is mind-numbing and Kucinich should be rightly lambasted if he does such a thing.

Tax Questions/Options

I wouldn't pretend to have a solid plan to repair our tax system and get back to fiscal sanity, but would it really be impossible to do some variation of the following?

• First, say, 30K is yours--keep it (per individual, so 60K for married couples)
• Remainder of income over 30K taxed at a flat rate of 20% up to 500K
• Taxable income over 500K taxed at flat rate of 25%

A sample of income levels and their tax liability would break out as follows:

Salary          Tax           % of Income

50,ooo          3,600        7.2%
75,000         8,100       10.8%
100,000      12,600      12.6%
150,000      22,200      14.8%
250,000      43,200      17.3%
500,000      95,700      19.1%
1 mil           217,500   21.75%

No deductions--period.  I could see an exception made for charity, but I don't think people give to charity primarily for a write-off and charitable contributions can be--and sometimes are--abused.  

As for child deductions, do we really need to subsidize having more children?  With a system like the one above, a family of 4 (or 3 or 6, for that matter), wouldn't have to pay a penny in income taxes up to $60K.  That seems pretty reasonable.  Having children is a very personal choice that can be effected by numerous different factors.  The government shouldn't be involved in either rewarding or penalizing the decision to have or not have children--and certainly not the number of children.

For mortgage deductions, it needs to go--which might make this a highly unpopular proposal. But it doesn't make sense to subsidize borrowing (particularly very leveraged borrowing) and the recent housing debacle seems to prove that point yet again.

Additionally, why not institute a national sales tax of about 8-10% that goes primarily to the welfare state (food, medicine, and housing would be exempt--including mortgages :-))?  Though regressive, it would be progressive in effect and go toward things like public housing, food stamps, Pell grants, and the like--though infrastructure, education, and public safety would be reasonable programs to fund with the tax as well, depending on the nature of it.  

Between Social Security, Medicare/Medicade, and a VAT tax of 8%, even someone making only 30K/yr would still be paying about 12-15% of their income in taxes (assuming they spend the majority of their income, which they likely would of course).  This VAT tax would ensure that everyone is paying into the social safety net as well, including those benefiting most from it (10s of millions of Americans pay no income tax at all).

The VAT tax would likely bring in close to a trillion dollars a year, quite possibly more (US GDP in 2009 was $14.4 Trillion), and one should hope that such a figure would be enough to take care of the social safety net ($1 trillion is over $3,000 for every man, woman, and child in the US).

The VAT tax would also, at least presumably, encourage saving and investment vs. consumption.  Though the argument could well be made that it might hurt business in that, effectively, it raises the prices of their goods and services, people will still need products and every vendor would be treated equally.  Additionally, if overall tax rates are lower, it gives more Americans more money to spend should they need/want to and, at least hopefully, mitigate the extra VAT tax expense.

I fully realize that my numbers may well be off and that the rates might work better with other numbers.  Additionally, this system could almost double the tax rate for the very poorest in our society.  But the very poorest would be receiving almost all the benefits of such a system--I don't see another way to do it, practically.

The main idea is to develop a system that is both easy and effective and, perhaps most importantly, neutralizes  most of the arguments from both the left and the right.  It would be hard to complain much with a very-near flat tax system that both protects the poor but does not completely exempt anyone at the same time.  Another huge benefit would be the reduction of lobbying power.  If there is nothing to gain in the way of tax codes or preferential tax treatment, why lobby?  Lobbying would obviously continue, but I can only think it would very substantially be reduced.

Just a thought.  I very conspicuously left off entitlements and corporate taxes, but this post is too long as is.  I'll leave that for another day though, in short, I would favor a reduced flat corporate rate with little to no exemptions and I favor a partial privatization of Social Security.

Hernia

I believe I may well have an umbilical hernia. How's that for feeling old? Better news...can't find a doc that has an opening before October. My best bet at quick diagnosis would be to go to an urgent care facility like people with no insurance. How's that for irony?

Rogue Rabbis

From the Truth is Stranger than Fiction Department. WTF?

GOP Personality that a D Can Fear

She asked to be quoted...

"Joe the Plumber -- you can quote me -- is a dumbass. He should stick to plumbing."

This is the spirit of McCain that was missing in Senator McCain last year.

CIA and Pelosi

Gasp! The CIA might have been misleading?

I honestly don't understand Panetta's take/behavior on this. I understand that he represents the CIA, but does he have to deny something less-than-professional/good (or even potentially illegal) happened years before he ran the organization?

I don't doubt for a second that Pelosi was briefed. What I do doubt is what they actually said to her. I wouldn't expect them to give a detailed description of everything they are doing, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if they left out almost all (if not all) details about what exactly "enhanced interrogations" entailed. My guess is that antiseptic briefings were given because the CIA reps were talking to dolts like Pelosi. I have no idea, obviously, but when talking to vacant executives like Pelosi, that's what I do--keep it simple, with lots of cliches and buzzwords, then leave.

So shame on the CIA if they didn't explain things more fully, but shame on Pelosi (and the other members of Congress) for not getting more details early on and trying to do something to stop it. The term, and the subject, of 'enhanced interrogations' has been around for quite sometime in the public, but I don't remember her speaking out against them. (Nor did I see her or many the Ds do anything to stop the suspension of Habeus Corpus).

Sad to see that her new-found outrage is really more based upon potentially being busted vs. being against the legally sanctioned torture of human beings. Even more sad...she far outclasses Harry Reid (but who doesn't?).

Not Exactly what Ghandi had in Mind

But interesting, nonetheless. Jaguar has released its new XJ model. Jaguar, the company sold to Ford, has been sold to Tata--an Indian based company. The global economic wheels keep on turning. Maybe Brasil will make Camaros one day...

Happy 4th III

And the obligatory Jimi Hendrix:

Happy 4th II

Not trying to top, Marvin Gaye, but still one of my faves:

Happy 4th

Hard to top Marvin Gaye:

Stay Safe...but not quite that safe

So my baby brother is off to Qatar as a Zoomie (aka US Air Force) officer and I told him I would give him $100 for a picture of him posing in front of a mosque wearing an enormous Star of David piece of bling. I was hoping for a Rhinestone version, but haven't been able to find it on the intertubes. I have found a couple possibles, though. I'm torn, atm, between this one and this one. Suggestions/help welcome.

For the record, our family isn't Jewish, so I could use some help...

Back in the USA

Three years ago today I was eating Indian food in the Glasgow, Scotland area. 10 years ago today I was eating spicy squid in Ouigongbu, S. Korea. Today, I am missing out on burgers and ribs at a friend's house due to IT drama (my profession). Makes me a little sad... Oh well, at least I'm not bored like this guy.

Back at it

Ok, I'm sincere this time (promise), I'm back at it. And.....leading off, Mrs./Gov. Palin's resignation speech transcript here.

Regular people

Much is venerated and derided about the 'average guy/gal' but, particularly in the US, the view seems to lean much more heavily toward veneration. I understand it and I don't.

There is a group of women about 30 yards away from me that meet every description of average. 30s-50s, not all that apparently intelligent, not that attractive, sneaking glances at every guy in the place trying to measure them up, average chicks. They are annoying, vulnerable, predictive, and beautiful. But, withal, I suppose the leaning toward veneration of them is genetic/instinctive ;-).

Keep dancing to Social Distortion, Ladies. My day is better watching you act the fool after a long day. And if I'm honest, as much as I will make special efforts to avoid you all, I'm a little jealous...

--Your semi-average Blogger

Douchebaggery Watch

One is reminded of Goethe's famous quote of "There is nothing worse than aggressive stupidity." Here it is: link

Octuplets

Yes, 8 babies in one pregnancy. From the article:

The babies will be in incubators for at least six weeks and the mother is planning to breast feed them all, the hospital officials said.

I'm not a woman, but I think that plan might have to be reassessed.

Obama Street in SF

Heh. Note the beat cop posing with them.

A Great Obamalama Ding Dong Day

Rule of law, and a tradition set forth by then General Washington, is restored.

My favorite part:

Key components of the secret structure developed under Bush are being swept away: The military's Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, facility, where the rights of habeas corpus and due process had been denied detainees, will close, and the CIA is now prohibited from maintaining its own overseas prisons. And in a broad swipe at the Bush administration's lawyers, Obama nullified every legal order and opinion on interrogations issued by any lawyer in the executive branch after Sept. 11, 2001.

Italics mine. Ahhhhhh, I'm home again.

The Innagural Address in Full

Text below:

My fellow citizens:

I stand here today humbled by the task before us, grateful for the trust you have bestowed, mindful of the sacrifices borne by our ancestors. I thank President Bush for his service to our nation, as well as the generosity and cooperation he has shown throughout this transition. Forty-four Americans have now taken the presidential oath. The words have been spoken during rising tides of prosperity and the still waters of peace. Yet, every so often the oath is taken amidst gathering clouds and raging storms. At these moments, America has carried on not simply because of the skill or vision of those in high office, but because We the People have remained faithful to the ideals of our forbearers, and true to our founding documents.

So it has been. So it must be with this generation of Americans. That we are in the midst of crisis is now well understood. Our nation is at war, against a far-reaching network of violence and hatred. Our economy is badly weakened, a consequence of greed and irresponsibility on the part of some, but also our collective failure to make hard choices and prepare the nation for a new age. Homes have been lost; jobs shed; businesses shuttered. Our health care is too costly; our schools fail too many; and each day brings further evidence that the ways we use energy strengthen our adversaries and threaten our planet. These are the indicators of crisis, subject to data and statistics. Less measurable but no less profound is a sapping of confidence across our land - a nagging fear that America's decline is inevitable, and that the next generation must lower its sights. Today I say to you that the challenges we face are real. They are serious and they are many. They will not be met easily or in a short span of time. But know this, America - they will be met.

On this day, we gather because we have chosen hope over fear, unity of purpose over conflict and discord. On this day, we come to proclaim an end to the petty grievances and false promises, the recriminations and worn out dogmas, that for far too long have strangled our politics. We remain a young nation, but in the words of Scripture, the time has come to set aside childish things. The time has come to reaffirm our enduring spirit; to choose our better history; to carry forward that precious gift, that noble idea, passed on from generation to generation: the God-given promise that all are equal, all are free, and all deserve a chance to pursue their full measure of happiness. In reaffirming the greatness of our nation, we understand that greatness is never a given. It must be earned. Our journey has never been one of short-cuts or settling for less. It has not been the path for the faint-hearted - for those who prefer leisure over work, or seek only the pleasures of riches and fame. Rather, it has been the risk-takers, the doers, the makers of things - some celebrated but more often men and women obscure in their labor, who have carried us up the long, rugged path towards prosperity and freedom. For us, they packed up their few worldly possessions and traveled across oceans in search of a new life. For us, they toiled in sweatshops and settled the West; endured the lash of the whip and plowed the hard earth. For us, they fought and died, in places like Concord and Gettysburg; Normandy and Khe Sahn. Time and again these men and women struggled and sacrificed and worked till their hands were raw so that we might live a better life. They saw America as bigger than the sum of our individual ambitions; greater than all the differences of birth or wealth or faction. This is the journey we continue today. We remain the most prosperous, powerful nation on Earth. Our workers are no less productive than when this crisis began. Our minds are no less inventive, our goods and services no less needed than they were last week or last month or last year. Our capacity remains undiminished. But our time of standing pat, of protecting narrow interests and putting off unpleasant decisions - that time has surely passed.

Starting today, we must pick ourselves up, dust ourselves off, and begin again the work of remaking America. For everywhere we look, there is work to be done. The state of the economy calls for action, bold and swift, and we will act - not only to create new jobs, but to lay a new foundation for growth. We will build the roads and bridges, the electric grids and digital lines that feed our commerce and bind us together. We will restore science to its rightful place, and wield technology's wonders to raise health care's quality and lower its cost. We will harness the sun and the winds and the soil to fuel our cars and run our factories. And we will transform our schools and colleges and universities to meet the demands of a new age. All this we can do. And all this we will do. Now, there are some who question the scale of our ambitions - who suggest that our system cannot tolerate too many big plans. Their memories are short. For they have forgotten what this country has already done; what free men and women can achieve when imagination is joined to common purpose, and necessity to courage. What the cynics fail to understand is that the ground has shifted beneath them - that the stale political arguments that have consumed us for so long no longer apply.

The question we ask today is not whether our government is too big or too small, but whether it works - whether it helps families find jobs at a decent wage, care they can afford, a retirement that is dignified. Where the answer is yes, we intend to move forward. Where the answer is no, programs will end. And those of us who manage the public's dollars will be held to account - to spend wisely, reform bad habits, and do our business in the light of day - because only then can we restore the vital trust between a people and their government. Nor is the question before us whether the market is a force for good or ill. Its power to generate wealth and expand freedom is unmatched, but this crisis has reminded us that without a watchful eye, the market can spin out of control - and that a nation cannot prosper long when it favors only the prosperous. The success of our economy has always depended not just on the size of our Gross Domestic Product, but on the reach of our prosperity; on our ability to extend opportunity to every willing heart - not out of charity, but because it is the surest route to our common good. As for our common defense, we reject as false the choice between our safety and our ideals.

Our Founding Fathers, faced with perils we can scarcely imagine, drafted a charter to assure the rule of law and the rights of man, a charter expanded by the blood of generations. Those ideals still light the world, and we will not give them up for expedience's sake. And so to all other peoples and governments who are watching today, from the grandest capitals to the small village where my father was born: know that America is a friend of each nation and every man, woman, and child who seeks a future of peace and dignity, and that we are ready to lead once more. Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint. We are the keepers of this legacy. Guided by these principles once more, we can meet those new threats that demand even greater effort - even greater cooperation and understanding between nations.

We will begin to responsibly leave Iraq to its people, and forge a hard-earned peace in Afghanistan. With old friends and former foes, we will work tirelessly to lessen the nuclear threat, and roll back the specter of a warming planet. We will not apologize for our way of life, nor will we waver in its defense, and for those who seek to advance their aims by inducing terror and slaughtering innocents, we say to you now that our spirit is stronger and cannot be broken; you cannot outlast us, and we will defeat you. For we know that our patchwork heritage is a strength, not a weakness. We are a nation of Christians and Muslims, Jews and Hindus - and non-believers. We are shaped by every language and culture, drawn from every end of this Earth; and because we have tasted the bitter swill of civil war and segregation, and emerged from that dark chapter stronger and more united, we cannot help but believe that the old hatreds shall someday pass; that the lines of tribe shall soon dissolve; that as the world grows smaller, our common humanity shall reveal itself; and that America must play its role in ushering in a new era of peace.

To the Muslim world, we seek a new way forward, based on mutual interest and mutual respect. To those leaders around the globe who seek to sow conflict, or blame their society's ills on the West - know that your people will judge you on what you can build, not what you destroy. To those who cling to power through corruption and deceit and the silencing of dissent, know that you are on the wrong side of history; but that we will extend a hand if you are willing to unclench your fist. To the people of poor nations, we pledge to work alongside you to make your farms flourish and let clean waters flow; to nourish starved bodies and feed hungry minds. And to those nations like ours that enjoy relative plenty, we say we can no longer afford indifference to suffering outside our borders; nor can we consume the world's resources without regard to effect. For the world has changed, and we must change with it.

As we consider the road that unfolds before us, we remember with humble gratitude those brave Americans who, at this very hour, patrol far-off deserts and distant mountains. They have something to tell us today, just as the fallen heroes who lie in Arlington whisper through the ages. We honor them not only because they are guardians of our liberty, but because they embody the spirit of service; a willingness to find meaning in something greater than themselves. And yet, at this moment - a moment that will define a generation - it is precisely this spirit that must inhabit us all. For as much as government can do and must do, it is ultimately the faith and determination of the American people upon which this nation relies. It is the kindness to take in a stranger when the levees break, the selflessness of workers who would rather cut their hours than see a friend lose their job which sees us through our darkest hours. It is the firefighter's courage to storm a stairway filled with smoke, but also a parent's willingness to nurture a child, that finally decides our fate. Our challenges may be new. The instruments with which we meet them may be new. But those values upon which our success depends - hard work and honesty, courage and fair play, tolerance and curiosity, loyalty and patriotism - these things are old. These things are true.

They have been the quiet force of progress throughout our history. What is demanded then is a return to these truths. What is required of us now is a new era of responsibility - a recognition, on the part of every American, that we have duties to ourselves, our nation, and the world, duties that we do not grudgingly accept but rather seize gladly, firm in the knowledge that there is nothing so satisfying to the spirit, so defining of our character, than giving our all to a difficult task. This is the price and the promise of citizenship. This is the source of our confidence - the knowledge that God calls on us to shape an uncertain destiny. This is the meaning of our liberty and our creed - why men and women and children of every race and every faith can join in celebration across this magnificent mall, and why a man whose father less than sixty years ago might not have been served at a local restaurant can now stand before you to take a most sacred oath. So let us mark this day with remembrance, of who we are and how far we have traveled. In the year of America's birth, in the coldest of months, a small band of patriots huddled by dying campfires on the shores of an icy river. The capital was abandoned. The enemy was advancing. The snow was stained with blood. At a moment when the outcome of our revolution was most in doubt, the father of our nation ordered these words be read to the people: "Let it be told to the future world...that in the depth of winter, when nothing but hope and virtue could survive...that the city and the country, alarmed at one common danger, came forth to meet [it]." America. In the face of our common dangers, in this winter of our hardship, let us remember these timeless words. With hope and virtue, let us brave once more the icy currents, and endure what storms may come. Let it be said by our children's children that when we were tested we refused to let this journey end, that we did not turn back nor did we falter; and with eyes fixed on the horizon and God's grace upon us, we carried forth that great gift of freedom and delivered it safely to future generations.

Yo-yo and Itzak

A beautiful string quartet with two of America's greatest musical sons, along with a young black man and a young latina woman. That's the America the world (and especially we) should want to see.

He phucked up the oath?!

Runs a near-flawless campaign and then fumbles the oath. Heh. Guess he reminded us that he really is human.

UPDATE: The Chief Justice decided to go without notes and phucked it up himself. Everything is legal, so no worries, but it seems rather quaint that two of the most powerful men in the US and two of the brightest people in all of American government became befuddled at and/or by the moment.

There he is

All the pomp and circumstance, with former presidents Carter, Bush 41, Clinton, and Bush 43, a sea of people with the Washington monument and the Lincoln memorial off in the distance, the great grand buildings, flags, trumpets, frills on the curtains, the Presidential Blue carpet, and then there he is. We wait at least four years for these moments of detente, and no one does them better than Americans, but this one seems the most transformative in my adult life.

I obviously have no idea what is going to happen from here on out, but I'm glad to see him here now on this day. And I'm very proud to be an American, especially on this day.

Bush the Great

This Wall Street Journal op-ed is almost astounding. I say almost because the whole time I was reading it I was thinking, "This guy has to be on the payroll." Then comes the line at the bottom:

Mr. Thiessen was chief speechwriter for President George W. Bush

Ah, ok. He really is on the payroll. Now it makes sense.