As an armchair pundit, it's easy to see Obama winning the following states:
| WA |
| OR |
| CA |
| CO |
| NM |
| KS |
| MO |
| SD |
| MN |
| WI |
| IL |
| LA |
| MS |
| SC |
| NC |
| NY |
| VT |
| ME |
| CT MA |
| RI |
| NJ |
| NH |
| IA |
| DC |
| MD HA |
That puts him at 286 electoral votes--16 over the 270 level necessary to win. McCain will probably have these states lined up:
| MT |
| WY |
| ID |
| UT |
| NE |
| AL |
| TX |
| KY |
| WV |
| AZ |
| OK |
That puts him at 93 electoral votes--177 shy of the necessary majority. Which, of course, means he would *have* to win Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Arkansas, North Dakota, Tennessee, Michigan, Indiana, Georgia, Alaska, *and* Nevada *and* steal a few states from Obama just to win a razor thin majority of electoral votes. All Obama has to do is win over a state or two (or not) and walk into the Oval Office.
It's not that Obama could not lose, but the task presented McCain is so overwhelming, I don't think the best GOP candidate on her best day could pull it off.
