Big Mo for Big O

The conventional wisdom just a week or two ago was that Hillarah would take NJ, MA, and NY, and likely CA--most of the big states--while Obama would take Illinois and many of the smaller states. Maybe not. Obama and Hillarah are now reported to be in a statistical dead heat in Massachusetts, as well as California and New Jersey and Connecticut. The only states Hillarah seems to be hanging on to are NY and Tennessee.

What is really significant is that in the states that Obama had a lead in, he has maintained. In the states mentioned above, he has closed gaps of 10-20 points just since the South Carolina primary. There is a tsunami coming, it seems. And Super Tuesday may well put Obama in a truly leading position with Texas, Ohio, and Virginia as showdown states as we have never seen before.

If Obama wins California, New Jersey, Illinois, and Massachusetts however, I can't help but think that it's functionally over. He will be the candidate that has won the majority of big states and the candidate that has won in the Widwest, Northeast, South, Mountain West, rural and urban, while Hillarah will be the candidate that won her "home" state, a small New England state, and Las Vegas (Obama carried almost all the other counties of Nevada). The delegate count will still be close, but Hillarah will have hit her ceiling and I can't see her winning many new converts past Super Tuesday.

I can hardly wait for tomorrow night. Man, this is fun!